Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Why the Cavs won’t win a title this year, or next year

Since I am not a normal contributor to this site, I feel like a slight introduction is in order. My name is Ryan Spruill and I am from Dayton, Ohio, but I have always been a Cavaliers fan. I went to school at the University of Toledo, where I was fortunate to meet Chris Donovan, and after graduating, went on to receive my MBA at Wright State University.
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So, at around noon Friday, I was sitting at my office in Cincinnati, Ohio, when I heard a sound of disappointment. At my office, ESPN is always on, so I was a bit curious. To my surprise, I found out that LeBron James had decided to come back home. I was very excited, not because he was coming home, but because of the fact that this puts the Cavs right back on the brink of a championship.

Obviously, my mind was racing because they are clearly a very good team with LeBron on the team, along with young talent in Kyrie Irving and others. Irving has improved each year that he has been with the team, although this past year seemed to be a little disappointing one for him. The good news is that I feel like he played poorly due many uncertainties, such as where this team was headed with a GM in Chris Grant and a head coach in Mike Brown. It also stems from him having his third head coach in four years, and with that comes three new systems. There had to have been talks between him, new GM Griffin, and new head coach Blatt about the system they were implementing and the future of the Cavs’ roster. He must have been happy, as Dan Gilbert tweeted that there was a verbal agreement between him and the Cavs, with him tweeting about it well before July 10.

The Cavs also have two unproven number one picks. We all know about Anthony Bennett’s disappointing season, where he looked a bit out of shape and struggled to find his shot. I have heard rumors that he is having a great summer camp, but I want to see it to believe it when it matters at the beginning of November. They just drafted Andrew Wiggins, who played one season at Kansas. He had a fantastic year; however, he seemed to disappear when it mattered most. He has a very good shot, but not a consistent one. Personally, I wished the Cavs would have drafted Jabari Parker, who I thought was a little more consistent and had an ability to take over games in the final two minutes.

Dion Waiters seems to have a killer instinct, but he also seems to be inconsistent and takes plays off. Tristian Thompson has improved every season, but I question whether he can become a star of this league, not that averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game would not be bad. It is just that is all I see Thompson becoming.

Nonetheless, the Cavs, who are basically an all-star college team outside of LeBron and Anderson Varejao, now have Vegas odds of 3 to 1 to win it all next season. I do not see them winning it this year at all, or even next year.

Yes, I know this may come as a shock to a lot of people, and yes, I do want to be that person that says they can’t win it first, but I really do not see them winning it all. For one thing, I feel like they don’t have a great rim protecting center. Sure, Varejao is great for hustle plays, but he does not have that killer instinct, particularly on offense. They also have the young guys, who are expected big contributions this year in Irving, Wiggins, Waiters, and Thompson. The problem is, none of these guys have playoff experience. I am adamant on this, as I always feel like you become better because of your failure in playoffs. I feel like there is a reason  it took LeBron nine years to win a title, or it took Michael Jordan seven years to win his first. You have to face your failures, own up to them by using them as a teaching tool.

The Cavs are still entertaining the idea of trading for Kevin Love. The problem is, it may cause them to give up probably a Waiters/Bennett/Wiggins combination, and even a first rounder. Granted, they have three first rounders in next year’s draft, so giving up one of them might not be so bad. Waiters has somewhat proven himself, but I feel like he lacks discipline on the court with his shot as well as in the locker room. Wiggins and Bennett have all the potential in the world, but they could also be a flop as well. Personally, I would hold onto Wiggins and Waiters and see if they could do something with one first rounder and Bennett, but that is just me.

The Cavs are also very interested in Mike Miller and Ray Allen. Both are three-point specialists, but have a lot of miles on their legs and are liabilities on defense. If I were to pick one, I would likely go with Miller, just because he is younger. But neither one excites me.

So, after all this, you have to take a look at the Eastern Conference. The East was extremely weak last season, and I expect more of the same. I think the Cavs are early favorites, with Indiana an easy second, and then some up and coming teams. I really like Washington with their young backcourt in Wall and Beal. They could be the dark horse in the East along with Chicago, who still has Derrick Rose with an unknown injury status.

Again, as I said before, I like the Cavs to make it to the Finals, but we all know that is easier said than done. Out West they have serious competition in the Spurs, the Thunder, and the Clippers. I feel like all three of those teams could take on the Cavs and beat them handily. My early pick is the Thunder, as I feel like they match up extremely well against the Clippers, and we all know how difficult it is to repeat as champs in any professional sport. The Thunder are in the exact same position the Cavs were in 2009-2010, with the possibility of Kevin Durant leaving for better pastures in Washington in 2016. I actually see them getting it done this year with a more mature Westbrook, a polished Ibaka, and a steady backup in Steve Adams.

Do I think the Cavs will win it all? Well, there are no guarantees, and LeBron seems to realize that. However, I think if they stay the course and keep healthy, year three of LeBron’s return might be the one. Get ready Cleveland, this is exciting couple of years!

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